Social Security COLA for 2027 to Be Announced Oct. 14; Private Estimates Range From 3.3% to 3.6%

The Social Security Administration will announce the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment at 8:30 a.m. on Oct. 14. Private forecasts range from 3.3% to 3.6%, higher than the 2.8% applied this year. The increase will be reflected in payments beginning in January next year.

The Social Security Administration (SSA) will announce the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on Oct. 14. Estimates released by private organizations ahead of the announcement range from 3.3% to 3.6%. The increase applied to this year's payments was 2.8%.

The adjustment is determined by comparing the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for the three months from July through September with the same period a year earlier. Because the figure cannot be finalized until September inflation data is released, all numbers published before then are estimates. The finalized increase will apply to payments beginning in January 2027.

In dollar terms, the impact becomes clearer. As of July this year, the average monthly benefit for a retired worker is about $2,086. Applying 3.5% would raise that by a little over $70 a month. AARP, assuming 3.6%, has estimated an increase of about $75 a month.

Forecasts vary somewhat by organization. AARP lowered its estimate from 3.6% to 3.5%, and The Senior Citizens League also adjusted its June–July estimate from 3.8% to 3.5%–3.6%. One analysis that reflected only the July and August data came up with 3.3%. Either way, all are higher than this year's increase.

However, the percentage increase does not translate directly into a larger benefit payment. Medicare Part B premiums are also set each fall, and when premiums rise, more is deducted from benefits, reducing the actual increase that reaches recipients. Both figures need to be considered together to plan next year's household budget.

The official figure will be posted on the SSA website (ssa.gov) on the morning of the 14th. Changes to individual benefit amounts will be communicated in December by mail and through online my Social Security accounts.