According to Gothamist, whether Gov. Kathy Hochul wins reelection depends largely on turnout among New York City voters. Hochul and Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman both focused their final campaign stretch on the city. Early voting runs through Sunday, Nov. 1, and Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

According to Gothamist, whether New York Gov. Kathy Hochul wins reelection depends largely on how many New York City voters turn out. Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman spent most of their final campaign schedules in the city. Early voting runs through Sunday, Nov. 1, and Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

The election four years ago is cited as evidence. In 2022, Hochul beat Republican Lee Zeldin 70% to 30% in the five boroughs but lost the rest of the state by 8 points. Her overall margin of 6 points came essentially from New York City votes. This time, too, Hochul has crisscrossed the city, greeting commuters at subway stations, attending union rallies, worshipping at a Brooklyn church and meeting Bronx community leaders, and she has also campaigned alongside New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

Blakeman is the Nassau County Executive. On Saturday, Oct. 24, he held rallies on Staten Island, in Dyker Heights, Brooklyn, and in Flushing, Queens, and on Tuesday, Oct. 27, he criticized congestion pricing in Midtown Manhattan. He said his campaign advisers told him he needs at least 32% of the city's vote to be competitive statewide, and he predicted more than 36%. However, in a Siena University poll released Wednesday, Oct. 28, his support in the city was 23%, and in a Marist University poll it was 26%. Statewide, the Siena poll had Hochul at 54% and Blakeman at 40%, and the Marist poll had it at 53% to 42%.

Early voting turnout is strong. In the first four days of the nine-day early voting period that began Saturday, Oct. 24, more than 294,000 people voted in New York City, about 123,000 (72%) more than in the same period in 2022. The increase in the rest of the state was even higher, at 97%. However, according to the New York City Board of Elections, 76% of early voters in the city are Democrats and 11% are Republicans. A Newsday analysis shows Democratic voters also far outnumber Republicans on Long Island.

The only locality-related fact the original text confirms is that Flushing, Queens, was among Blakeman's campaign stops on Saturday, Oct. 24. Beyond that, the original contains no analysis of voter sentiment in specific areas such as Flushing.