The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) will run a $295 million deficit next year, and the shortfall could grow to about $900 million by 2030, according to a report from the New York State Comptroller's office. The analysis found that spending is growing faster than revenue, even with fare and toll increases scheduled for March 2027 and March 2029.
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) is projected to run a $295 million budget deficit next year, and the shortfall could swell to about $900 million by 2030, according to the New York Post. The figures come from a report the New York State Comptroller recently released. The MTA appears set to balance its $21.9 billion budget this year, but the deficit grows in later years even with fare and toll increases scheduled for March 2027 and March 2029.
The report projects deficits of $507 million in 2028 and $707 million in 2029. From 2027 to 2030, revenue is expected to grow by an average of 2.1% a year, while spending is expected to grow by 3.2%. Neal Zuckerman, chair of the MTA's Finance Committee, said at a committee meeting on Monday that the situation is "not a formula for a good business model."
Factors driving up costs include health care, rising debt service, overtime pay and bus fare evasion. The MTA spent $821 million on overtime through August, which is $141 million more than expected for the period. The Comptroller's office estimated that annual overtime spending will exceed the $993 million budgeted by $225 million. The MTA estimated the bus fare evasion rate at 49% in the second quarter, up from 45% a year earlier. The Comptroller's office estimated that cutting bus fare evasion by 10% could bring in up to $150 million a year. However, the MTA has suspended its 350-member fare enforcement team because of physical confrontations with riders, and it has not said when the team will return.
This year's budget is balanced thanks to higher tax revenue, additional New York State aid and federal COVID-19 relief funds. The payroll mobility tax is expected to bring in $109 million more than projected in February, and the state allocated an additional $542 million for day-to-day operating costs. Federal relief funds totaled $747 million, $147 million more than budgeted, but the report said that is not a source of funding the MTA can count on every year. The Comptroller's office projected that the MTA's total debt will nearly double, from $45.3 billion in 2025 to $88.9 billion in 2033. Congestion pricing had collected about $550 million through September, but the MTA uses that money for infrastructure improvements rather than day-to-day operations.
For readers who ride New York City subways and buses, what has been confirmed is the schedule of increases already planned. MTA fares rose 10 cents, from $2.90 to $3, in January of this year, and the report's projections include fare and toll increases in March 2027 and March 2029. Drivers entering Midtown Manhattan are already paying the congestion toll. However, the report coverage does not say how large the increases will be.